Phased Timeline
This chapter provides a practical sequencing template for Freeze–Vote–Rebuild. Exact durations are adjustable; what matters is the order, the verification gates, and the reversibility of commitments.
Overview of Phases
- Phase 1: Freeze — Stop major combat, stand up monitoring and deconfliction, stabilize civilian conditions.
- Phase 2: Vote — Conduct a supervised legitimacy process with agreed rules and integrity safeguards.
- Phase 3: Rebuild — Scale reconstruction through transparent governance, performance incentives, and auditing.
Each phase has:
- an entry condition (what must already be true to start),
- a set of deliverables (what must be built),
- an exit gate (what must be verified to advance),
- rollback triggers (what causes suspension or reversal).
Suggested Sequencing Template
Phase 0: Pre-Freeze Setup (Planning and Commitments)
Objective: Make the Freeze executable on day one.
Deliverables:
- Draft ceasefire terms (geography, prohibited actions, reporting rules).
- Monitoring/verification design and staffing plan.
- Deconfliction channels and incident-handling SOPs.
- Humanitarian access and protected infrastructure list.
- Definition of verification gates and consequences.
- Draft Vote rulebook outline (eligibility, observation, dispute resolution).
- Draft Rebuild governance outline (procurement, audits, data transparency).
Exit Gate:
- Parties and guarantors accept the initial operating package and publish the gate logic.
Phase 1: Freeze (Stabilization under Monitoring)
Objective: Reduce violence to a level that permits political process.
Deliverables:
- Operational monitoring presence (or equivalent verification capability).
- Incident reporting + classification system.
- Deconfliction mechanisms (hotlines, joint incident room).
- Humanitarian corridors/access arrangements.
- Protected infrastructure protections and repair windows.
- Compliance dashboard (public where feasible; restricted where necessary).
Exit Gate (Example):
- Sustained reduction in major hostilities for a defined period.
- Monitoring system functioning with independent reporting.
- Dispute-resolution mechanisms operating (complaints processed, incidents adjudicated).
Rollback Triggers (Example):
- Repeated high-severity violations.
- Obstruction of monitoring.
- Systematic attacks on protected infrastructure.
Phase 2: Vote (Legitimacy Process)
Objective: Produce a credible, supervised outcome.
Deliverables:
- Final electorate definition (including displaced persons/refugees handling).
- Voting modality plan (in-person/remote; identity and auditing).
- Observation mission charter and deployment.
- Anti-coercion measures and secure participation arrangements.
- Published and version-locked rules (including any vote-to-border method).
- Public simulation/sandbox (if outcomes map to territory/administration).
- Dispute resolution and appeals process.
Exit Gate (Example):
- Observers certify process integrity to agreed standards.
- Disputes adjudicated and final results published.
- Acceptance criteria met (e.g., turnout thresholds or other legitimacy conditions).
Rollback Triggers (Example):
- Credible evidence of coercion or systemic fraud.
- Inability to deploy observation or maintain voter safety.
- Collapse of Freeze conditions before or during voting.
Phase 3: Rebuild (Reconstruction at Scale)
Objective: Convert stability and legitimacy into visible reconstruction.
Deliverables:
- Reconstruction authority/governance structure.
- Procurement standards and anti-corruption controls.
- Independent auditing mechanisms.
- Project pipeline and prioritization (energy, transport, housing, services).
- Performance incentives (“Reconstruction Olympics”) and scoring/public reporting.
- Funds disbursement tied to measurable delivery and integrity metrics.
Exit Gate (Example):
- Reconstruction funds flow under audited controls.
- Delivery KPIs trend positively (cost/time/quality).
- Capture/corruption indicators remain below agreed thresholds.
Rollback Triggers (Example):
- Audit failures or major corruption findings.
- Diversion of funds to military escalation.
- Systematic obstruction of transparency requirements.
A Note on Durations
Durations should be specified only after:
- monitoring capacity and observation capacity are confirmed,
- humanitarian access conditions are verified,
- identity/voter registry feasibility is assessed.
Use this book’s later chapters to define:
