Verification-First Gates

Verification-first gates are the control mechanism of Freeze–Vote–Rebuild. They define measurable criteria that must be met to:

• Advance from one phase to the next.
• Unlock conditional incentives (aid, sanctions adjustments, funding tranches).
• Trigger pauses or rollbacks when compliance fails.

This chapter provides a template for gate design.

Design Principles for Gates

A good gate is:

• Measurable: Or at least independently attestable.
• Time-bounded: Measured over a defined window.
• Multi-indicator: Harder to game.
• Linked to consequences: Advance/pause/rollback.
• Auditable: Evidence can be reviewed independently.

Avoid gates based on intent, rhetoric, or vague “good faith” language.

Gate Taxonomy

Phase Gates (Macro)

Determine progression:

• Pre-Freeze $\rightarrow$ Freeze
• Freeze $\rightarrow$ Vote
• Vote $\rightarrow$ Rebuild (Scale)

Benefit Gates (Micro)

Determine incremental unlocks within phases:

• Corridor expansion.
• Licensing/waivers.
• Reconstruction tranche releases.
• Expanded access arrangements.

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Template: Define Each Gate in a Standard Format

For each gate, specify:

1. Name and Purpose
2. Indicators (what is measured)
3. Thresholds (numeric or categorical)
4. Measurement Window (e.g., rolling 14 days)
5. Data Sources (monitors, sensors, audits, observers)
6. Decision Authority (who certifies)
7. Consequences (advance/pause/rollback; what exactly changes)
8. Appeal/Dispute Process (how contested determinations are handled)
9. Publication Policy (what is reported publicly)

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Example Gates (Illustrative)

Gate A: Freeze Stability Gate

Purpose: Verify the ceasefire is holding well enough to begin Vote preparation.

Indicators:

• Count of high-severity incidents (S3/S4) per week.
• Civilian harm incidents and protected infrastructure strikes.
• Monitor access denials/obstruction events.
• Corridor uptime.

Thresholds:

• S3/S4 incidents below agreed threshold for 14 days.
• Zero (or near-zero) protected infrastructure strikes at S4/C3.
• No unresolved monitor obstruction events.
• Corridor uptime above agreed minimum.

Consequences:

• Authorize Vote operational rollout (registration, observer deployment).
• Unlock defined incentive tier (if ladder is used).

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Gate B: Vote Readiness Gate

Purpose: Confirm the Vote can occur safely and credibly.

Indicators:

• Observer mission deployed to target coverage.
• Voter roll publication complete + appeal window processed.
• Anti-coercion hotline functioning and staffed.
• Cybersecurity readiness checks complete.

Consequences:

• Authorize opening of voting window.

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Gate C: Vote Integrity Gate (Certification Gate)

Purpose: Determine whether results can be certified.

Indicators:

• Observer integrity assessment meets agreed standard.
• Audit results within tolerance thresholds.
• Dispute caseload resolved within timelines.
• No unresolved systemic coercion findings.

Consequences:

• Certify results and unlock Rebuild scaling tier.
• If failed: Reruns/recounts in defined areas or fallback mechanism.

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Gate D: Reconstruction Integrity Gate (Tranche Gate)

Purpose: Release reconstruction funds only when governance and delivery remain clean.

Indicators:

• Audit findings below threshold.
• % of payments tied to verified milestones.
• Procurement compliance rate.
• Debarment enforcement functioning.
• KPI performance within expected bands.

Consequences:

• Release tranche / expand project pipeline.
• If failed: Suspend disbursement, initiate remediation, replace operators if necessary.

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Gaming Resistance: Multi-Indicator Design

To reduce gaming:

• Use multiple indicators across security, access, and integrity.
• Track recurrence and patterns, not just single counts.
• Include “obstruction” as a high-severity indicator.
• Require independent corroboration for major events.
• Audit the monitors (meta-verification).

Governance Integration

Gates rely on governance bodies to:

• Certify compliance based on evidence.
• Adjudicate contested findings.
• Enforce consequences.

See:

• Status-Neutral Governance Model
• Escalation Ladder & Deconfliction

Drafting Note

When the book is populated with full content, this page should include a single table listing all gates, indicators, thresholds, windows, and consequences. This should map directly to the Sanctions/Aid Linkage and the Metrics & KPIs Toolkit.