Core Principles & Red Lines
This chapter lists the design principles that keep Freeze–Vote–Rebuild coherent and auditable. It also states “red lines” in operational terms (conditions that, if violated, should pause or terminate progression).
Core Principles
1. Verification-First
- Commitments are tied to observable indicators, not trust.
- Monitoring, incident classification, and audit trails are built in from the start.
- Benefits and concessions are conditional and reversible.
2. Sequencing Over Bundling
- Stop violence first, establish legitimacy second, rebuild third.
- Contentious final-status issues are addressed through a legitimacy mechanism rather than preconditions for a ceasefire.
3. Status-Neutral Mechanism Design
- The process does not predetermine outcomes.
- Rules aim to be fair, transparent, and legible to all stakeholders.
- The mechanism is evaluated by integrity and compliance, not preferred political results.
4. Inclusion of Displaced Persons
- The electorate definition is not allowed to collapse into “whoever is currently on the ground.”
- Eligibility and identity rules must explicitly address refugees and internally displaced persons.
5. Anti-Coercion and Integrity by Default
- Vote design must assume coercion attempts and disinformation.
- Observation, audits, and dispute resolution are not add-ons; they are core.
6. Transparency with Security Realism
- Public dashboards and open reporting are preferred where feasible.
- Sensitive security details can be restricted, but the integrity of verification must remain independently auditable.
7. Conditional Incentives and Credible Enforcement
- Any relief, aid, or reconstruction funds are linked to compliance gates.
- Enforcement pathways and rollback conditions are specified in advance.
8. Reconstruction as a Legitimacy Engine
- Rebuild must deliver visible results quickly to reduce spoiler leverage.
- Procurement and governance must be structured to resist capture and corruption.
Red Lines (Operational)
These are conditions that should trigger pause, rollback, or termination unless resolved.
Freeze Red Lines
- Systematic or repeated high-severity ceasefire violations.
- Obstruction, intimidation, or expulsion of monitors/observers.
- Targeting of protected civilian infrastructure (as defined in the Freeze package).
- Denial of agreed humanitarian access corridors or aid deliveries.
Vote Red Lines
- Credible evidence of systemic coercion (physical or administrative) affecting participation.
- Inability to provide basic voter safety in designated voting modalities.
- Manipulation of rules after publication (non–version-locked procedures).
- Observation mission unable to operate freely or to publish findings.
Rebuild Red Lines
- Audit failures indicating large-scale diversion of funds or procurement capture.
- Systematic obstruction of transparency requirements (data suppression, falsified reporting).
- Reconstruction resources used to materially enable renewed large-scale hostilities.
- Persistent corruption indicators exceeding agreed thresholds without remediation.
Practical Rule: Red Lines Must Map to Triggers
Each red line should be tied to:
- an indicator (what is measured),
- a threshold (what level triggers action),
- a response (pause/rollback/escalation),
- an owner (who decides and who acts).
Implementation detail lives in:
