US / EU Playbook

This playbook translates Freeze–Vote–Rebuild into a checklist of priorities and safeguards relevant to the US, EU, and G7 partners as guarantors, primary funders, and political stakeholders.

It is written as an operational evaluation tool, not as a statement of current commitment.

Primary Goals (Process-Focused)

• Scale Stabilization: Reduce escalation risk while maintaining long-term leverage through economic and security gating.
• Verification Integrity: Ensure the process is data-driven and resistant to manipulation by any party.
• Enforceable Conditionality: Avoid rewarding non-compliance; make incentives (sanctions adjustments, aid) credible and reversible.
• Democratic Legitimacy: Ensure Vote criteria are robust, specifically protecting against coercion and exclusion of displaced persons.
• Auditable Reconstruction: Build an architecture (e.g., Ukraine Development Fund) that is fast, transparent, and EU-accession compliant.

Key Risks

• Strategic Regrouping: A Freeze being used as cover for an adversary to re-arm or consolidate.
• Monitoring Impotence: Missions that cannot operate freely due to access denial or "soft" obstruction.
• Legitimacy Deficit: Vote failure (fraud or exclusion) that prevents international recognition of the outcome.
• Legal/Legislative Failure: Promising incentives (like sanctions relief) that cannot survive domestic court challenges or Congressional/Parliamentary review.
• Donor Fatigue: Reconstruction capture or corruption causing a collapse in political support in Western capitals.

Non-Negotiables / Redlines (Operational)

• Unfettered Access: Independent monitoring with immediate, enforceable access rights to all incident sites.
• Article 5-Style Guarantees: Security provisions (e.g., "Article 5 mirrors") that trigger automatically upon verified violations.
• Electoral Standards: Comprehensive observation, digital audit trails, and anti-coercion measures for the Vote.
• Inclusive Franchise: Explicit, high-confidence pathways for the 6M+ refugees and IDPs to participate.
• Standardized Integrity: Reconstruction must use the DREAM system and a dedicated Audit Board (per Ukraine Facility standards).

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Leverage and Incentives (How to Structure Support)

1. The Conditional Incentives Ladder

• Stage any sanctions licensing or "extraordinary revenue" adjustments.
• Tie each step to measurable gates: zero high-severity incidents, full monitor access, and audit pass-rates.
• Make reversals automatic for defined S4 violations (e.g., strikes on protected energy infrastructure). (See: Sanctions/Aid Linkage)

2. The $200B+ Funding Architecture

• Use tranche-based disbursement tied to 20+ reform benchmarks (Ukraine Facility model).
• Establish a Prosperity Administrator or similar high-level leader to oversee the Ukraine Development Fund.
• Require the "Transparency Stack": project registries, disbursement ledgers, and real-time KPI dashboards. (See: Reconstruction Architecture)

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Operational Responsibilities

What partners must do to ensure framework durability:

• Monitoring Capacity: Fund and staff independent monitoring (e.g., space-based and unmanned systems) to ensure early notification.
• Refugee Participation: Host countries (Poland, Germany, etc.) must enable registration and secure voting for the displaced.
• Security Provision: Deployment of European-led or "Article 5-mirror" security guarantees as a deterrent.
• Procurement Discipline: Enforce OECD/EU anti-corruption standards as a non-negotiable condition of funding.

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Verification Demands (What to Insist On)

• Numeric Gate Thresholds: Clear pass/fail metrics for each phase.
• "Audit of the Monitors": Independent meta-verification to ensure mission neutrality.
• Cyber-Hardening: Support for the integrity of identity and voting systems.
• Debarment Authority: Centralized list of entities banned from reconstruction for fraud or non-performance.

Key References:

• Verification-First Gates
• Escalation Ladder
• Vote Integrity & Observation

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Domestic Approvals Reality (Avoid Overpromising)

Before committing to incentives, identify:

• Legislative Authority: What requires a new act of Congress or EU Council decision?
• Regulatory Framework: Licensing rules for frozen asset profits.
• Timeline: Realistic windows for ratification.

(See: Domestic Approvals Gate)

Failure Triggers and Fallback Options

• Monitor Obstruction: Trigger automatic gate failure and pause incentive progression.
• Reconstruction Fraud: Immediate suspension of tranches and replacement of the "Prosperity Administrator."
• Inconclusive Vote: Pre-defined "Plan B" (e.g., technical government, extended monitoring, or regional re-runs).

Questions to Ask in the Room

• What exact data triggers each incentive tier, and is the rollback mechanism legally "locked"?
• Is the monitoring mission's access "immediate" or subject to a 24-hour notice?
• What are the minimum legitimacy thresholds (turnout, observer scores) for recognizing the Vote?
• How will host countries handle the privacy of displaced voters?
• What triggers the "Article 5-mirror" security guarantees, and who makes that final call?